Apr 2: Iran war
This Week's Headlines
- Trump tells the nation war is "nearing completion," threatens to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages." In his first primetime address on the war, Trump said military objectives would be achieved in two to three weeks but offered no specific exit strategy or endgame. Oil surged; Asian markets fell sharply. Iran denied any ceasefire request.
- Hegseth fires Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, midwar. The ouster, effective immediately, brings total senior officers fired to 15+. Hegseth installed his former military aide as acting chief. The same day, Hegseth used his personal X account to end an investigation into an Army crew that flew helicopters by Kid Rock's Nashville home.
- Gas officially above $4 for first time since 2022. AAA confirmed the national average reached $4.081 on April 2, up $1.08 in one month. Physical oil (Dated Brent) hit $141.37, the highest since 2008. EIA forecasts Brent above $95 near-term.
- DHS shutdown nearing end after 48 days. Senate re-passed bipartisan bill minus ICE/CBP. Johnson and Thune announced a two-track plan. House could pass by voice vote at April 6 pro forma session. Far-right opposition from Perry and others may force delay.
- Israeli airstrike hits home of Iran's diplomatic back-channel envoy. Former FM Kharazi, overseeing Pakistan-mediated talks for a Vance meeting, was seriously injured; his wife was killed. Iran called it deliberate sabotage.
- US casualties revised upward. Fifteen confirmed deaths. The Intercept reports 520+ wounded, citing Pentagon undercounting. Saudi air base attack wounded at least 15 more troops.
- CENTCOM: 12,300+ targets struck, 155+ vessels destroyed. The most comprehensive operational tally yet, released alongside Trump's address.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.5 |
| Generic Ballot (latest polls) | D+11 (Quinnipiac T2) / D+8 (Emerson T1, GSG) |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -16.7 (39.7% approve) |
| Trump Approval (range, 10+ firms) | 33-43% approve / 53-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval | Net -21.3 econ, -32.7 inflation (SB avg) |
| Iran War Approval | Net -14.3 (SB avg); 61% disapprove (Pew) |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich final Mar) | 53.3 (revised from 55.5 prelim) |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $4.081/gal (Apr 2) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | Brent June ~$108; Dated Brent physical hit $141.37 (highest since 2008) |
| US Deaths (Iran war) | 15 KIA confirmed; 520+ wounded (Intercept) |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 30% (up from 25%, Mar 25) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts avg (97+ races); Dems flipped 29 seats (R flips: 0) |
| DHS Partial Shutdown | Day 48 (since Feb 14) - longest in US history |
What Changed
- Iran war