UMich consumer sentiment collapsed in the final March reading: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was revised sharply downward to 53.3, from the preliminary 55.5 and below the consensus estimate of 54.0. The final reading incorporated survey responses collected through March 24 — capturing two additional weeks of war, gas price increases, and market volatility not fully reflected in the preliminary data. At 53.3, sentiment sits in the 2nd percentile historically, below the level recorded at the start of every recession since the survey began. CNBC's Rick Santelli described it as "close to estimate" but the 2.2-point downward revision from the preliminary is the most significant revision in over a year.
Markets are extending losses into correction territory. The Dow Jones fell approximately 510 points (-1.1%) and entered correction territory — down 10% from its recent high — joining the Nasdaq, which entered correction Thursday. The S&P 500 lost approximately 1% and is on pace for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak since 2022. The S&P is down approximately 6.8% in March, on track for its worst month since December 2022. In a milestone for the stagflation thesis: futures markets now price a greater than 52% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026, the first time that threshold has been breached. Pre-war, markets expected multiple rate cuts.
Iran war Day 28: Israel struck Iran's Arak heavy water nuclear reactor after issuing an evacuation warning. Iranian media said no casualties resulted due to "prior safety measures." This is the second nuclear facility targeted. Iran's counter-proposal to the US 15-point peace plan is expected today via intermediaries. The IRGC turned away three ships from the Strait of Hormuz this morning. Iran's Red Crescent reported approximately 1,900 killed in Iran with 20,000+ injured; Lebanon's death toll reached 1,116. Total regional deaths exceed 3,000. US wounded total updated to 303 (273 returned to duty). Vance reportedly chided Netanyahu in a tense call for overselling regime change.
G7 foreign ministers at Vaux-de-Cernay Abbey called for "the absolute necessity to permanently restore safe and toll-free freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz" and urged "an immediate cessation of attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure." Secretary Rubio criticized NATO for not helping. European allies maintain de-escalation must come first.
DHS shutdown Day 42: The Senate voted by voice vote at 2:20 AM to fund all of DHS except ICE and parts of CBP, after Trump announced he'd sign an executive order directing new DHS Secretary Mullin to pay TSA agents. 510 TSA officers have now quit. TSA workers are missing their second full paycheck. The House fate is uncertain — Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-MI) called the Senate bill "garbage." House Republicans are meeting this afternoon. Democrats got no policy concessions on ICE reform. Republicans plan to fund ICE via reconciliation.
Marquette Law School Poll (T1, Mar 11-18, 850 WI RV): Trump approval at 42%/56% — net -14, the worst in either of his terms in Marquette's polling. Independent approval fell to 26%. ICE disapproval at 56%; 61% say the Pretti shooting was not justified. 59% favor the Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariff authority. In the April 7 Wisconsin Supreme Court race, liberal Chris Taylor leads conservative Maria Lazar 30-22 among likely voters, with 46% undecided. The Wisconsin race is a significant test of enthusiasm and turnout heading into the midterms.
UMich final March revised to 53.3 (from 55.5 prelim). Dow enters correction. Futures >52% rate hike probability. Marquette T1 WI: Trump net -14 (worst either term).
Iran war
Day 28: Arak reactor struck. G7 demands Hormuz. Iran counter-proposal expected. 1,900+ dead in Iran. 303 US wounded. Senate passed DHS minus ICE overnight.