Apr 1: Iran war
This Week's Headlines
- Trump to address the nation tonight on Iran. In his first primetime address since the war began 33 days ago, Trump will reaffirm his intention to end the war within "two to three weeks." Earlier today, he claimed Iran's president has asked for a ceasefire - Iran denied the claim. Pezeshkian is preparing a letter to the American people. Trump told Reuters he is "absolutely" considering withdrawing the US from NATO after allies declined to join the war. Oil dropped below $100 intraday for the first time since March 23 on exit expectations.
- CNN/SSRS poll: Trump's economy approval hits career low of 31%. Two-thirds of Americans say his policies have worsened the economy - the highest of his presidency and higher than any Biden-era reading. Inflation approval dropped to 27% (from 44% a year ago). Three-quarters say the economy is in poor shape. Overall approval holds at 35%, one point off his all-time low. Republican strong approval dropped to 43% from 52% in January.
- Gas prices continue climbing past $4. AAA national average hit $4.064/gal on April 1, up from $4.018 yesterday. The $1.08 monthly increase is the largest on record. Seven in 10 Americans say the president lacks a clear gas price plan (CNN/SSRS). Eight states and DC automatically send mail ballots - all would be affected by Trump's new election executive order.
- Trump signs executive order to create national voter eligibility lists. The order directs DHS and SSA to build state-by-state lists of verified citizens and instructs USPS to send mail ballots only to approved voters. Eight states that vote entirely by mail would be directly affected. Election law experts called it unconstitutional. Maine's Secretary of State said the state would not "obey in advance." Oregon's Secretary of State called it an "illegal power grab." Trump's first election EO (2025) was largely blocked by courts.
- SAVE Act cloture fails, DOJ sues 29 states for voter rolls. The SAVE Act cloture vote failed 53-47 on Mar 26. Senate is in recess until April 13. Trump said he will not sign other legislation until the SAVE Act passes. Separately, DOJ has sued 29 states and DC demanding unredacted voter roll data, with suits in CA, OR, MI, and GA dismissed so far. DOJ confirmed sharing voter data with DHS. The Brennan Center estimated 21 million Americans lack the documents the SAVE Act would require.
- DHS shutdown is now the longest in US history. Day 47. Congress left for Easter recess with competing House and Senate bills and no resolution path. Rep. Suozzi is leading a bipartisan push to reopen DHS. Senate returns April 13; House April 14.
- Iran war: Escalation continues despite exit talk. Iranian missiles struck an oil tanker off Qatar. Drones hit Kuwait airport fuel depots. An American journalist was kidnapped in Iraq by suspected Iranian-backed militants. Israel struck and killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. IRGC says Hormuz is "fully" under its control. Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge vessels for Hormuz passage.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.5 |
| Generic Ballot (latest polls) | D+11 (Quinnipiac T2) / D+8 (Emerson T1, GSG) |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -17.4 (39.7% approve) |
| Trump Approval (range, 10+ firms) | 33-43% approve / 53-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval | 31% approve (CNN/SSRS career low); net -21.3 econ (SB avg) |
| Iran War Approval | Net -14.3 (SB avg); 61% disapprove (Pew) |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich final Mar) | 53.3 (revised from 55.5 prelim) |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $4.064/gal (Apr 1) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | Brent ~$102-105 (Apr 1, sharp pullback); May settled $118.35 (Mar 31 record) |
| US Deaths (Iran war) | 15 KIA (6 Kuwait, 1 Saudi Arabia, 6 KC-135 crash Iraq, 2 other); 300+ wounded |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 30% (up from 25%, Mar 25) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts avg (96+ races); Dems flipped 29 seats (R flips: 0) |
| DHS Partial Shutdown | Day 47 (since Feb 14) - longest in US history |
What Changed
- Iran war