Mar 25: Document update
This Week's Headlines
- AP-NORC poll (Mar 19-23, 1,150 adults): 59% of Americans say U.S. military action in Iran has been excessive. Forty-five percent are extremely or very concerned about affording gas in the next few months, up from 30% shortly after Trump won reelection. About 60% oppose deploying ground troops, including roughly half of Republicans. About 4 in 10 adults approve of Trump overall, unchanged from last month. Two-thirds say preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon should be a top priority — but two-thirds also say keeping gas prices down should be a top priority, a juxtaposition AP calls "difficult for the White House to manage."
- Iran war Day 26: Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire plan and issued its own 5-point counter-proposal, including a demand for Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Israel's UN ambassador said Israel is not part of US-Iran talks and military operations will continue until Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities are eliminated. Combat continued: a missile struck a Tel Aviv street, Hezbollah fired 60 attack waves in 24 hours, Lebanon's death toll hit 1,072 with ground invasion fears growing, and a drone hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport. Pakistan may host in-person talks; China and France urged dialogue. The 82nd Airborne deployment is underway.
- CPAC opened in Grapevine, Texas, with what the AP described as "open division on the right" over the Iran war. Steve Bannon warned the war could cost the GOP conservative voters in the midterms. Matt Gaetz said the US has been "too cozy with Israel." Neither Trump nor Vance was announced as a speaker. NC Senate candidate Michael Whatley is scheduled to speak.
- DHS shutdown Day 40: TSA acting administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told the House Homeland Security Committee that the agency has lost more than 480 officers, with wait times exceeding 4.5 hours at some airports — "the highest wait times in TSA history." TSA employees have worked 87 unpaid days in FY2026; nearly $1 billion in payroll has not been paid. Callout rates exceed 40-50% at some airports. A funding deal has stalled: Senate Democrats sent a counterproposal with ICE reforms, but the Senate is expected to fail another cloture vote Thursday.
- Oil fell 2.2% to around $102 on talks hopes. Markets rallied: Dow +305 to 46,429, S&P +0.54% to 6,591.90. Gas remained at $3.977 AAA, approaching $4 nationally for the first time since 2022. The EIA weekly figure hit $4.096 for the week of March 23.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.1 |
| Generic Ballot (latest polls) | D+6 (SIN/Verasight RV) / D+7 (Emerson T1 LV) |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -15.3 (Mar 25) |
| Trump Approval (range, 10+ firms) | 36-42% approve / 51-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval | 25% cost of living, 29% economy (Reuters/Ipsos) |
| Iran War Approval | 59% say action excessive (AP-NORC); 45% worried about gas |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich prelim.) | 55.5 (Mar); expectations 54.1 |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $3.977/gal (Mar 25) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | ~$102/barrel (Mar 25 mid-day) |
| US Deaths (Iran war) | 13 KIA + 2 non-combat; ~200 wounded |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 25% (up from 20%, Mar 12) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts avg (96+ races); Dems flipped 29 seats (R flips: 0) |
| DHS Partial Shutdown | Day 40 (since Feb 14) |
Technical Changelog
Document update. Iran war Day 26: combat continues despite diplomatic signals, Iran rejects US 15-point plan and issues 5-point counter-plan demanding Hormuz control, missile hits Tel Aviv, Lebanon death toll 1,072 (33 in 24 hours). AP-NORC poll: 59% say military action excessive, 45% worried about affording gas (up from 30% post-election), ~60% oppose ground troops. Oil volatile around $99-102 on ceasefire hopes. Gas $3.977 AAA. CPAC opens with open conservative division over Iran war. DHS Day 40: TSA testimony reports 480+ quits, 4.5-hour record waits, $1B unpaid payroll. Silver Bulletin net -15.3 confirmed.