Mar 24: Document update
This Week's Headlines
- Iran war Day 25: Iran denied any negotiations with the United States and the IRGC called Trump a "deceitful American president." An Iranian source acknowledged "outreach" through intermediaries. Pakistan offered to host talks, and an Israeli official told NPR planning is underway for Pakistan talks later this week, though separately an Israeli official said a deal "does not appear tangible right now." Fighting continued across the region: Iran fired at least 8 missile barrages at Israel on Tuesday, with impacts in a Tel Aviv residential neighborhood (6 injured). Saudi Arabia intercepted ~20 drones targeting its Eastern Province.
- Israel declared it will establish a "security zone" up to the Litani River in southern Lebanon — the first time Israel has formally spelled out its intent to occupy nearly a tenth of Lebanon. Defense Minister Katz said displaced residents "will not return" until Israeli security is guaranteed. Finance Minister Smotrich called for outright annexation. Hezbollah vowed to fight. Lebanon expelled the Iranian ambassador.
- Oil rebounded 4% to settle at $104.49 Brent (WTI $92.35) after Monday's 11% crash, as markets concluded Iran's denial of negotiations undermined Trump's de-escalation narrative. Gas hit $3.977 AAA nationally. Michigan became the first battleground state above $4/gallon ($4.01). Iran began charging informal "transit fees" of up to $2M per vessel through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets gave back Monday's rally: S&P 500 -0.37% to 6,556.37, Dow -0.18% to 46,124.06, Nasdaq -0.84%. AI and software stocks hit hardest.
- Two major new polls confirm deepening erosion on economic issues. Strength In Numbers/Verasight (Mar 16-18, 1,530 adults): Trump 37%/60%, D+6 generic ballot. Approval on prices/inflation hit net -39, the worst single-issue rating in their poll history. Border security went underwater for the first time. 58% called the Iran war a bad use of taxpayer dollars. Only 10% say things are going well in America. The Argument (Mar 12-17, 1,519 RV): Trump 40%/58% (net -18, their worst-ever result), D+9 generic ballot.
- DHS shutdown Day 39: Senate Republicans emerged from a White House meeting with a plan to fund DHS except for ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations branch. Collins said she's "optimistic." Democrats are cautiously positive. This could end the 39-day shutdown before Easter recess. CBS Houston found TSA staffing shortage at 36%, 3-story security lines with no food, water, or AC. Delta suspended its congressional assistance desk. An NTSB crash investigator was stuck in a TSA line for hours.
- Florida legislative special elections today: FL SD-14 (Tampa swing seat) is the most competitive. Results pending tonight.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.1 (Mar 22) |
| Generic Ballot (range, 4 firms) | D+5 to D+9 |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -15.3 (Mar 22) |
| Trump Approval (range, 9 firms) | 36-46% approve / 51-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval | 35% approve (Marist T1) / net -23 (Echelon) |
| Iran War Approval | 36-40% approve handling; 47-58% oppose |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich prelim.) | 55.5 (Mar); expectations 54.1 |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $3.977/gal (Mar 24) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | $104.49/barrel (Mar 24 settle) |
| US Deaths (Iran war) | 13 KIA + 2 non-combat; ~200 wounded |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 25% (up from 20%, Mar 12) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Avg. Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts (96 races); 9 seat flips (R flips: 0) |
| DHS Partial Shutdown | Day 39 (since Feb 14) |
Technical Changelog
Document update. Iran war Day 25: Iran denied all negotiations, IRGC called Trump "deceitful." Pakistan offered to host talks; backchannel efforts confirmed. Israel declared security zone to Litani River in Lebanon. Oil rebounded above $104 after Monday crash. Gas $3.977 AAA, Michigan crossed $4. Two major new polls: SIN/Verasight (37%/60%, D+6, prices approval net -39 — worst single-issue rating in poll history) and The Argument (40%/58%, net -18 series low, D+9). DHS shutdown Day 39: Senate deal emerging to fund DHS minus ICE ERO.