The Analysis
The Forces Shaping 2026
War, tariffs, DOGE, healthcare, AI anxiety, wealth concentration, DHS dysfunction, and immigration enforcement - eight accelerants creating a compound political shock with no historical parallel in midterm cycles.
U.S. Senate Races
ME, NC, GA, MI are the battlefield. Tier system tracks all 35 races by flip probability.
U.S. House Races
435 total. 30+ competitive. Historical pattern: opposition gains 25+ seats in wave environments.
The Populist Wave Scorecard
96+ special elections averaging D+5.6 overperformance. Electability data, special election signals, and five November scenarios.
Beyond the Ballot
Five structural barriers that could absorb a populist majority before it legislates anything: money, institutional resistance, the attribution problem, gerrymandering, and the party civil war.
Action Guide, State Races & Conclusion
Voter action guide, state-level hidden battlefield, and the Gilded Age inflection thesis.