Mar 30: Dashboard
This Week's Headlines
- DHS shutdown is now the longest in US history. The Department of Homeland Security funding lapse reached its 44th day on Sunday, surpassing the 43-day October-November 2025 shutdown that affected the entire federal government. Both chambers of Congress left Washington for a two-week Easter recess with no resolution in sight. The Senate passed a bipartisan bill funding all of DHS except ICE; the House passed a competing 60-day full-DHS continuing resolution. Neither bill has a viable path in the other chamber. Trump signed an executive order Friday directing TSA pay, with paychecks expected as early as today, but the order does not resolve the underlying impasse and does not cover other DHS employees at CISA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard. More than 510 TSA officers have quit since the shutdown began.
- Four-nation diplomacy in Islamabad. Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia met Sunday in Islamabad to discuss ending the war, with a second meeting scheduled for Monday. Pakistan has emerged as the primary intermediary, with Foreign Minister Dar confirming that the US and Iran have exchanged messages through Pakistan. Dar offered to host in-person talks "in the coming days, for a comprehensive and lasting settlement." Iran brokered a deal allowing 20 Pakistani-flagged ships to transit Hormuz. The UK is sending RFA Lyme Bay with mine-clearance drones to help reopen the strait.
- Recession probability escalating across forecasters. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month recession probability to 30% (from 25%), EY-Parthenon to 40% (from a 15% baseline), and Moody's AI-driven model sat at 49% in February before the war began. Mark Zandi warned the next data run will likely push it above 50% - a threshold that has preceded every US recession since 1945. The OECD raised its 2026 US inflation forecast to 4.2%, far above the Fed's 2.7% projection. UMich final March consumer sentiment revised to 53.3 (2nd percentile historically), with income-tercile convergence showing the top third dropping 9% and one-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.8%.
- Iran war Day 30. Explosions rocked Tehran Sunday morning; 2 killed and 5 wounded near Shaft city. Iran's parliament speaker accused the US of planning a ground invasion. Bahrain intercepted 20 missiles and 23 UAVs in 24 hours; Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) was targeted. A drone strike targeted the residence of the Iraqi Kurdish region's president. The WHO reported 9 paramedics killed and 7 wounded in 5 separate attacks in southern Lebanon on Saturday, bringing March's total to 51 health workers killed. The IRGC threatened retaliation against Israeli and US university campuses in the Gulf. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.48% (8-month high) and the 30-year briefly touched 5%, as bond markets price in higher-for-longer inflation.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.1 |
| Generic Ballot (latest polls) | D+6 (SIN/Verasight RV) / D+7 (Emerson T1 LV) |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -16.7 |
| Trump Approval (range, 10+ firms) | 36-42% approve / 51-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval | 25% cost of living, 29% economy (Reuters/Ipsos) |
| Iran War Approval | 61% disapprove (Pew, 3,524 adults, MOE 1.8) |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich final Mar) | 53.3 (revised from 55.5 prelim) |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $3.981/gal (Mar 30) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | Closed $112.57 Fri (+4.22%); Sat midday ~$104 |
| US Deaths (Iran war) | 13 KIA + 2 non-combat; 315+ wounded |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 30% (up from 25%, Mar 25) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts avg (96+ races); Dems flipped 29 seats (R flips: 0) |
| DHS Partial Shutdown | Day 44 (since Feb 14) - longest in US history |
What Changed
- Dashboard
- Goldman recession prob raised to 30% (from 25%). EY-Parthenon 40%, Moody's 49% (pre-war). DHS shutdown Day 44, now longest in US history. Gas $3.981 AAA.
- Iran war
- Day 30: four-nation diplomacy in Islamabad (Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia). Pakistan offers to host in-person US-Iran talks.
- Analysis
- OECD raised 2026 US inflation forecast to 4.2%. Five new chart_data.json series: income-tercile sentiment, inflation expectations, sector divergence, Treasury yields, farm costs.