- Iran war (Day 15): Kharg Island struck Mar 13 - U.S. hit 90+ military targets on Iran's primary oil export hub (handles ~90% of Iran crude); Trump said oil facilities spared "for reasons of decency." Oil reversed mid-week pullback, Brent back to ~$100/barrel. Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to commercial shipping [121][122].
- US casualties: 13 KIA in action (up from 7 on Mar 12), plus 6 non-hostile (KC-135 refueling aircraft crash, western Iraq). ~140 wounded, 8 severe. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly wounded (Hegseth) [120].
- No ceasefire: Israeli Defense Minister Katz said operations continue "without any time limit." Trump said war may end "soon" because "practically nothing left to bomb." Iranian President Pezeshkian set terms: reparations and guarantees against future attack. Senior regional official expects war to last at least another week [122].
- Gas: $3.675/gal AAA (Mar 14), up ~26% vs. pre-war. IEA released 400M barrels from strategic reserves (172M US SPR). Goldman Sachs revised 2026 oil forecast upward [123][124][125].
- No rally effect holds: Silver Bulletin avg net -13.9 (Mar 13), slight widening from -13.0 (Mar 10). War entering third week with approval stable-to-declining [128].
- Economy approval eroding: Marist T1 economy approval 35% (new series low); Quinnipiac economy disapproval 58% (record). NPR/Marist: 61% say nation headed wrong direction [97][129].
- War costs: $11.3B in first 6 days. 250+ US organizations signed letter calling on Congress to halt war funding [126].
- Cook House (Mar 12): CA-48 Toss-Up to Lean D; TX-23 Safe R to Likely R (following Mar 6 batch: CA-13, CO-05, CA-25, CA-47, CT-05).
- PA special elections Mar 17: HD-79 (R-held, Blair County) and HD-193 (R-held,…