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Evidence Lab

Interactive charts organized by argument. Click any chart to explore, zoom, and share.

Data as of March 23, 2026

Political Environment

The electoral map is shifting. Generic ballot, presidential approval, and national direction indicators track the realignment in real time.

Generic Ballot — D Margin
Silver Bulletin average + individual polls. Positive = D advantage.

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Trump Net Approval — Silver Bulletin Average
Net approval (negative = underwater). Includes 1st term anchors for comparison.

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Trump Economy Approval
Individual polls: approve (blue) & disapprove (red) by tier. Dashed lines = RCP rolling average. Oct 2025–present.

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Wrong Track — % Wrong Direction
Share of Americans saying country is on the wrong track (Jun 2022–present)

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Approval vs. Generic Ballot — Concurrent Trends
Concurrent trends — shared timeline, independent scales. Left: net approval (Red). Right: D ballot margin (Blue). Jun 2025–present.

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↑ Back to sections Read: Why a Landslide Is on the Table →

Energy & Iran War

How the Iran war transmits through energy markets to the broader economy. Gas, oil, and casualty data since the war began Feb 28, 2026.

Gas & Oil Prices
AAA national avg $/gal (left axis) & Brent crude $/barrel (right axis) — numbered event markers below

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    Iran War — Cumulative U.S. KIA
    Hostile vs. non-hostile deaths since Feb 28, 2026. Shows when 3+ data points available.

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    Iran War — Public Opinion
    Approval of Trump's handling + support for military action. Color-coded by question type.
    Iran War — Cost Overview
    Concurrent trends — shared timeline, independent scales. Bars: US KIA (hostile, cumulative). Line: Brent crude $/bbl. Dots: war approval polls (if available).
    ↑ Back to sections Read: Iran War Analysis →

    Economy

    The affordability crisis driving the realignment. Consumer sentiment, inflation, GDP, recession probability, and the Fed's response.

    GDP Growth — Quarterly, Annualized
    BEA. Blue = positive, red = negative. Q4 2025: +0.7% (2nd estimate)
    CPI Inflation (Year-over-Year)
    BLS. Dashed line = Fed 2% target. Peak: 9.1% Jun 2022. Current: 2.4% Feb 2026.

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    Unemployment Rate
    BLS. Sahm Rule triggered Jul 2024 at 4.3%. Current: 4.4% Feb 2026.

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    Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly Change)
    BLS. Feb 2026: −92K (corrected from initial +151K misreport). Blue = job gains, red = losses.
    Consumer Sentiment — University of Michigan
    Index (lower = worse). Mar 2026 prelim: 55.5 — 2nd percentile historically.

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    Goldman Sachs 12-Month Recession Probability
    Current: 25%. Spiked to 45% at Apr 2025 tariff shock.

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    Fed Funds Rate — Target Range
    FOMC. Sep 2024–Sep 2025 cutting cycle (5.0% → 3.75%). Current: hold at 3.50–3.75%.

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    PCE Inflation (Fed's Preferred Measure)
    BEA. Dashed line = Fed 2% target. Goldman forecast Dec 2026: 2.9%.
    Economic Conditions at a Glance
    Five independent metrics — each retains its own scale and unit. No blending or composite index.
    ↑ Back to sections Read: Tariffs & Affordability Crisis →

    Election Tracker

    The electoral map where the realignment meets the ballot. Special elections, race ratings, and state-level polling.

    Special Elections — Cumulative Avg. D Overperformance
    Rolling average D overperformance vs. Trump 2024 margin across all state legislative specials.
    Special Elections — Notable Results
    Individual race overperformance vs. Trump 2024 margin. Green = D outperformed, Red = underperformed.

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    Senate Race Ratings

    Current Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings. Latest entry per race.

    Race Cook Political Report Sabato's Crystal Ball As of

    House Rating Changes

    Notable House race rating movements since Jan 2026. ▲ = moving toward D, ▼ = moving toward R.

    DateRaceOld RatingNew RatingForecaster

    Key Race Polling

    Head-to-head polling trends for key Senate races (races with 3+ general election polls shown). Margin = D minus R. Positive = D leads.

    Primary Calendar

    ↑ Back to sections Read: Senate & House Race Profiles →

    Money in Politics

    Super PAC war chests, party committee fundraising, and outside spending effectiveness. Cash-on-hand figures from EOY 2025 FEC filings (released Feb 2026). Color: ■ D-aligned   ■ R-aligned   ■ Industry/bipartisan.

    Super PAC Cash on Hand (EOY 2025)
    $ millions — sorted by cash on hand descending
    Party Committee Fundraising — Full Year 2025
    Committee2025 Total Raised
    Illinois Primary PAC Scorecard (Mar 17, 2026)
    Outside spending effectiveness in IL House primaries — first major 2026 PAC test
    PACRacesWinsLossesSpent

    Candidate FEC filing data will appear here after the Q1 2026 deadline on April 15.

    Expected: grouped bar chart showing total raised by candidate per race.

    ↑ Back to sections Read: Money in Politics →

    Wealth Inequality — The Second Gilded Age by the Numbers

    Long-run data on U.S. wealth concentration. Sources: Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts (1989–present), World Inequality Database / historical estimates (pre-1989), Economic Policy Institute, Forbes/IPS, Americans for Tax Fairness. All share figures are % of total household net worth.

    Top 1% Wealth Share
    % of total U.S. household net worth. Pre-1989 dashed = historical estimate.

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    Bottom 50% Wealth Share
    % of total U.S. household net worth. Federal Reserve DFA data (1989–present).

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    Top 10% Wealth Share
    % of total U.S. household net worth. Pre-1989 dashed = historical estimate.

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    CEO-to-Worker Pay Ratio
    Average CEO compensation at top 350 U.S. firms vs. typical worker (EPI, realized measure; 1965–2024)

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    U.S. Billionaire Count
    Number of U.S. billionaires per Forbes/IPS (1989–2025)

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    Worker Pay vs. Productivity vs. CEO Pay (Index, 1978 = 100)
    Cumulative growth since 1978 — CEO pay +1,094%, worker pay +26%, productivity +81% (EPI)

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    Billionaire Political Spending (Federal Elections)
    $ millions contributed by billionaires/ultra-wealthy in each federal election cycle (ATF/OpenSecrets)

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    Forbes 400 Entry Threshold (inflation-adjusted, 2024 dollars)
    Minimum net worth to make the Forbes 400 list, 1982–2024

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    Stock Ownership Concentration — Top 1% vs. Bottom 50%
    % of all U.S. stocks & mutual funds owned. 2002 vs. 2024. Source: inequality.org.
    The Three Eras: Gilded Age Comparison
    Key wealth concentration metrics across three snapshots. Sources: WID, Fed DFA, EPI, Forbes/IPS, ATF.
    Metric First Gilded Age (~1900) Postwar Low (~1975) Today (2025)
    ↑ Back to sections Read: Wealth Concentration Analysis →

    Scenario Probabilities

    Analyst-estimated probability ranges for five 2026 outcome scenarios, recorded at each document update. Shaded bands show the range (min–max); line shows midpoint. Scenarios defined in Part III of the main document. Probabilities are analyst estimates, not model outputs.

    Scenario Probability Ranges Over Time
    Five scenarios: A (Landslide) through E (Failed Flip)

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    ↑ Back to sections Read: Conclusion & Scenarios →

    Pollster Reference

    Pollster reliability tiers used in this document. Tier 1 = highest reliability (live-caller, large sample, established track record). Tier 3 = lowest (online panel, limited track record). Silver Bulletin grades from Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin pollster ratings.

    Pollster Tier Silver Bulletin Grade Last poll in document
    Washington Post/Schar School Tier 1 A+ —
    Marquette University Law School Tier 1 A+ —
    NYT/Siena Tier 1 A+ —
    Monmouth University Tier 1 A+ —
    Marist College / NPR/PBS Tier 1 A+ 2026-03-04
    Emerson College Tier 1 A 2026-03-17
    SurveyUSA Tier 1 A —
    UNH Survey Center Tier 1 A 2026-02-28
    Fox News/Beacon Research Tier 2 A- 2026-03-15
    CNN/SSRS Tier 2 B+ 2026-03-02
    Morning Consult Tier 2 B+ 2026-03-08
    YouGov / Economist Tier 2 B+ 2026-03-09
    Quinnipiac University Tier 2 B+ 2026-03-09
    PPP (Public Policy Polling) Tier 2 B+ 2026-03-19
    DDHQ / Decision Desk HQ Tier 2 B+ 2026-03-16
    NBC/Hart Research Tier 2 B+ 2026-03-03
    Reuters/Ipsos Tier 2 B 2026-03-15
    AP-NORC Tier 2 A- 2026-03-01
    Rasmussen Reports Tier 3 C+ —
    Trafalgar Group Tier 3 C 2026-02-28
    InsiderAdvantage Tier 3 C+ —
    Patriot Polling Tier 3 C- —
    McLaughlin & Associates Tier 3 C —
    Harvard-Harris Tier 3 C+ 2026-02-28
    Quantus Insights Tier 3 D+ 2026-03-19
    Echelon Insights Tier 2 A 2026-03-16
    ↑ Back to sections
    Data updated with each document revision. Probabilities are analyst estimates, not model outputs. Polling tiers reflect the document’s reliability methodology (see main document for details). Silver Bulletin averages are sourced from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin substack/model.